000
AXNT20 KNHC 040545
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU FEB 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 2N30W TO 
THE NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 15W-22W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 
27N99W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
ALONG 28N97W 28N90W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER 
THE W GULF...E TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO W OF 90W. RADAR IMAGERY 
SHOWS RAIN OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FLORIDA HAVE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. WINDS OVER 
THE NW GULF ARE PREDOMINATELY 20-30 KT. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF ARE 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60'S OVER S 
FLORIDA AND S TEXAS... WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 
50'S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
82W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF... 
TEXAS...AND MEXICO W OF 90W...AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 83W-90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF AND 
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO 
MOVE NE TO LOUISIANA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... WARM FRONT... 
AND RAIN. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS 
TO PANAMA. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SE FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N58W TO THE S BAHAMAS 
NEAR 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. 
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W. A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N25W 28N34W 26N40W. 
ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N29W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 
20N W OF 70W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE E TO 32N42W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A GALE TO FORM OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA