000 AXNT20 KNHC 032342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ51W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 85W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW CONUS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT FROM NEW MEXICO TO LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THIS AREA IS ALSO DRAWING UP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN GULF N OF 19N W OF 88W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM SRN TEXAS INDICATES AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE TEXAS AND N MEXICO COASTLINE. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO LINES THE TEXAS COAST FROM A 1007 MB LOW OVER NE MEXICO AT 26N99W TO NEAR CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS TO S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY ENHANCING THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EWD. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S FROM THE LOW CENTER AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 85W. A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM A 997 MB LOW E OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N65W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N63W CONTINUING SW ALONG 27N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 30N63W 26N66W 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA SE TO NEAR 24N63W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH...AS WELL AS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 56W-59W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 26N33W...AND 29N44W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 43W. A DYING COLD FRONT BISECTS THE RIDGE ALONG 32N27W 29N34W 27N41W WHERE IT BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30NM S OF THE AXIS...AND 90 NM N OF THE AXIS. WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W OF PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO MERGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON