000
AXNT20 KNHC 031753
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED FEB 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 
5N9W...CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W TO THE 
NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1.5N50W. WEAK CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE ITCZ FROM 22W TO 30W. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED NEAR OR ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT  
ACROSS THE BASIN. BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...EXPECTED TO PROGRESS 
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THIS SYSTEM CARRIES CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY IS 
ALREADY SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF THIS COMING SYSTEM OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED ALONG THE 
WEST AND NORTHWEST GULF COAST FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO NEW 
ORLEANS. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 150 NM OFFSHORE. MARINE 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WEST OF 90W. 
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO 
NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. SO FAR MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BASIN DURING THIS 
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 90W...FAIR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER 
THIS REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MARINE 
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF SHOW EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS COVERING MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT 
SOUTH OF 18N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY 
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N68W. 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N68W CONTINUING ALONG 27N71W TO 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 
THE FRONT FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. IN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION 
AHEAD OF IT. 

MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS DOMINATED BY A 
SURFACE 1023 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N35W. HOWEVER...A 
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THIS REGION THROUGH 32N33W EXTENDING 
ALONG 27N38W TO 26N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N OF 
THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD 
WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN IT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALSO...SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS LINGERING WITHIN 80 NM NORTH OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM THE PASSAGE OF A 1004 LOW CURRENTLY 
HEADING TO SOUTHERN SPAIN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA