000 AXNT20 KNHC 031133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 22W-25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND OVER NE MEXICO ALONG 26N98W 20N98W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER THE W GULF AND N MEXICO W OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER INLAND OVER MEXICO W OF 98W. ELSEWHERE... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 23N80W MOVING E. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS E IF THE GULF OVER THE N BAHAMAS. WINDS OVER THE E GULF N OF THE FRONT ARE NORTHERLY 15-20 KT. WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W ARE EASTERLY 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60'S OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO INCLUDE N FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW PREVAIL WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF AND MEXICO W OF 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION...AND A 1007 MB LOW TO BE ON THE TROUGH AXIS N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF PANAMA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 68W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1004 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 64W-71W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW ALONG 33N69W 30N63W 28N57W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N31W TO 28N40W 27N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N34W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 8W-13W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 33N12W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 8N30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR CONVECTION TO BE E OF THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 51W-58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA