000 AXNT20 KNHC 030522 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N20W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N97W 20N96W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER THE W GULF AND N MEXICO W OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER INLAND OVER MEXICO W OF 100W. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE SE GULF NEAR 22N87W MOVING E. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION. WINDS OVER THE E GULF N OF THE FRONT ARE NORTHERLY 15-20 KT. WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W ARE NORTHEASTERLY 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA S OF THE FRONT... WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO INCLUDE N FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW PREVAIL WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF AND MEXICO W OF 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION... AND A 1007 MB LOW TO FORM ON THE FRONT NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF PANAMA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 68W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1006 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 69W-73W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N33W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 28N60W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE W ATLANTIC LOW ALONG 29N70W 33N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N35W. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 31N15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 8W-13W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N13W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 8N30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR CONVECTION TO BE E OF THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN 55W-65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA