000 AXNT20 KNHC 022333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W ALONG 3N20W 4N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE BRAZIL COAST FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINE THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W ALONG 24N97W TO N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 21N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING ALONG 25N85W 24N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS...HEAVY IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS...ARE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA SE OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-28N E OF 82W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 81W. DRY AIR BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 26N BETWEEN 84-93W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH EWD OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIPS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC INTO THE ERN GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE PUSHED INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE SW N ATLC FROM A 1006 MB LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N78W CONTINUING ALONG 29N78W TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N76W 29N74W 27N71W 27N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 62W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 81W. A WEAK DYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG 27N BETWEEN 45W-62W CONNECTS THE END OF THE WARM FRONT TO A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 28N45W TO THE NE ALONG 32N35W AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WEAK RIDGING IS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE DYING FRONT WITH SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS. AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DIES...AND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD...THE MULTIPLE HIGH CENTERS WILL MERGE INTO ONE. FARTHER E...A 996 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 16W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON