000 AXNT20 KNHC 021800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 5N9W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DETECTED ALONG THE ITCZ...EXCEPT WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 46W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BASIN...ENHANCING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF MERGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A COLD FRONT TROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG 30N82W 28N84W 26N84W 23N85W. SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF 29N. EXPECT MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF 29N...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AS THE TERRAIN MAY BE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALLS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CLEARING WEATHER BEHIND. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGION NORTH OF 23N. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF...THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...SEEN AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE WEST OF 85W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 27N96W 23N95W 20N94W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF 18N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN...WHERE THE TAIL TIP OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS PRODUCING WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN CUBA. LOOK FOR THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN... IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...A JET-STREAK IS PREPARING TO ENTER THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING AND ENHANCING A PAIR OF MERGING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N78W AND 30N77W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERNMOST CENTER LOW ALONG 31N78W...CONNECTING TO THE SECOND LOW CENTER AT 30N77W...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO FREEPORT...NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERNMOST CENTER LOW ALONG 28N76W 26N72W...BECOMING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 26N68W 27N60W 27N50W 30N40W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION...MODERATE TO STRONG...WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...IS FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THESE TWO LOWS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DEEPENING TO NEAR 998 MB. CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 25N47W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOS OF THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 27. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 25N. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EAST ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N16W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PORTUGAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA