000 AXNT20 KNHC 021127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW HAS FORMED OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS N FLORIDA TO A NEWLY FORMED 1011 MB LOW IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 20N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE JACKSONVILLE LOW FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO IN VICINITY OF THE E GULF LOW FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-87W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 86W. FURTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF ALONG 26N96W 20N94W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE 60'S AND 70'S OVER SOUTH...CENTRAL...AND NORTH FLORIDA... WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40'S AND 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE GULF...EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH LOW CENTERS TO MOVE E. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE JACKSONVILLE LOW TO DEEPEN TO 1005 MB AND BE NEAR 33N74W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE GULF LOW WILL ALSO BE EMBEDDED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO 27N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 26N70W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER TO N FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AT 30N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTS WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE JACKSONVILLE LOW FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N47W. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 15W-19W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N18W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 15N30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR CONVECTION TO BE E OF THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-72W. ALSO EXPECT THE CANARY ISLAND LOW TO MOVE NE TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 34N13W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA