000
AXNT20 KNHC 020559
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST TUE FEB 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N20W EQ40W 1S47W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM 
1S-1N BETWEEN 37W-43W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SE 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N80W 27N84W 
24N88W 21N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF 
FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 
27N. FURTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS 
AND NE MEXICO ALONG 29N95W 23N96W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. MOSTLY 
10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 60'S OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL 
FLORIDA... AND ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF 
STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE GULF... EXCEPT THE NW 
GULF WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS...FOR A 1006 MB LOW TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA 
AND A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS 
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE E GULF WITH 
COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 
STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N43W TO 26N70W. 
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N47W. A 1005 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N18W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW 
CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 16W-19W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
W OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS 
AT 30N18W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 15N30W. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS...FOR A 1006 MB LOW TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA 
NEAR 32N77W. ALSO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO EXTEND E FROM THE LOW 
TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 29N60W. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E 
TO BEYOND 32N32W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA