000
AXNT20 KNHC 012358
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON FEB 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 3N20W 
1N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 11W-17W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 33W-42W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE WRN GULF FROM S OF 
HOUSTON TEXAS NEAR 28N95W ALONG 23N96W TO THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE 
NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
WITHIN 300 NM EXTENDING NWD INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. A 
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN TEXAS AND MEXICO IS 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND PROVIDING A LARGE DIFFLUENT 
ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SHOWER 
ACTIVITY. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF PANAMA CITY 
FLORIDA NEAR 29N85W ALONG 26N88W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 
21N89W. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 1616 UTC INDICATES A 
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 
23N89W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE 
AXIS FROM 23N-27N AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
LIGHTNING DATA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SE 
GULF FROM THE SRN TIP OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 24N84W INTO 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 20N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE AXIS W OF 83W WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS 
N OF 24N E OF 83W. HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO ACROSS THE SE 
COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SW N ATLC. EXPECT CONTINUED 
DISTURBED WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS 
AS THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD DRAWING MOISTURE WITH 
IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINE THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM S 
FLORIDA TO NEAR 20N87W. SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THIS PORTION OF 
THE AREA AS WELL ADDING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT 
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 55W. A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ALONG 15N AS WELL AS E OF HONDURAS EMBEDDED 
IN ELY FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE 
SW N ATLC SUPPORTING ISOLATES SHOWERS W OF 75W ACROSS FLORIDA 
INTO THE ERN GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE N COAST 
OF FLORIDA ALONG 31N80W TO 30N81W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W ALONG 29N57W TO 27N72 WHERE IT 
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE SRN TIP 
OF FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT E OF 80W TO THE WRN BAHAMAS. THIS AREA OF 
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY AFFECTED MUCH OF SE FLORIDA WHERE 
FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER E...A 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH 
NEAR 26N51W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION 
OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG 55W. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW 
CONTINUES TO SPIN W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N19W. FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE NOW BEEN 
DROPPED DUE TO A LACK OF BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY. 
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW CENTER IS STILL 
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N 
BETWEEN 15W-20W. THE SURFACE LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS 
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON