000 AXNT20 KNHC 011752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 5N10W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S48W.MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W AND 28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 230 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 26N96W 23N96W 20N96W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP THE SURFACE TROUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO 26N83W...BECOMING A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA SOUTH OF 27S. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...ENHANCING THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF SHOW EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGION. SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ARE EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF...THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...SEEN AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH IS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 75W...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL BASIN. WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN...NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 80W...ARE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT...DUE TO AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MEXICO GULF. LOOK FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN ACROSS WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 3255 AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N60W 25N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...HEADING TO A NEAR STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE WOBBLING NEAR 25N47W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 60W TO 30N. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CLUSTER OF WEAK SCATTER SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THESE SHOWERS ARE REMNANTS OF OLD DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM A 1005 MB LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N20W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE SURFACE LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVERGENCE RELATED TO IT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE SURGES OF CLOUD BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN SEVERAL LAYERS OF FRONTS AROUND THE CENTER. ONE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTEND AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS OCCLUDED FRONT BECOMES COLD FRONT ALONG 27N18W 24N19W 22N22W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG 27N18W 28N15W 29N14W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS AN AREA FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. ALSO...EXPECT THE EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA