000 AXNT20 KNHC 011116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 10W-13W... FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-24W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 37W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 24N80W 23N85W 20N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N AND E OF 90W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER OHIO NEAR 39N83W PRODUCING MOSTLY 15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70'S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ARE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N87W 15N88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA ...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 65W. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 26N70W 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N49W. A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N23W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS N OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N24W 33N17W 31N14W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES S TO 27N15W 19N24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE IN VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 18W-25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N23W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N42W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION N OF THIS FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE NE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N19N IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA