000
AXNT20 KNHC 010542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON FEB 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-24W... 
AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 37W-40W.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA ALONG 23N80W 22N85W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N AND E OF 90W.
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE NEAR 36N87W 
PRODUCING MOSTLY 15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70'S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA 
AND ARE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO 
DRIFT BACK NORTH TO S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO 
HONDURAS ALONG 22N85W 20N86W 16N88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER 
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS W OF 83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 70W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS 
PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW 
CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FRONT. 
ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 25N75W 27N80W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N49W. A 1000 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N26W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS N 
OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N29W 31N25W 30N20W. A COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES S TO 27N19W 23N20W 19N25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE IN VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 
25N-30N BETWEEN 23W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 45 NM 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 40W. A 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N25W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N43W 
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT 
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION N OF THIS FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E 
ATLANTIC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE NE NEAR 30N20N IN 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA