000 AXNT20 KNHC 311758 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR ILHA DE MARAJO. AN AREA OF SCATTER MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 19W TO 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF SHOW NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE REGION...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF...THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...SEEN AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LATEST IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SOURCE OF MOISTURE HAS SHUT DOWN. THUS...THESE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE GULF SHOULD CLEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE AT AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BASIN NEAR 23N85W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH WESTERN CUBA AND CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 20N86W...BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS 60 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA IS GENERATING SCATTER SHOWERS EAST IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 78W...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BASIN DUE TO AN OLD DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL BASIN. WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN...NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 79W...ARE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT...DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF 30N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 65W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET IN THIS AREA...EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N49W. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CLUSTER OF WEAK SCATTER SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W THESE SHOWERS ARE REMNANTS OF OLD DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM A 1000 MB LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N25W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS LOST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SURFACE LOW. NEVERTHELESS...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE SURGES OF CLOUD BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN SEVERAL LAYERS OF FRONTS AROUND THE CENTER. TWO OCCLUDED FRONTS EXTEND AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE FIRST OCCLUDED FRONT BECOMES COLD FRONT ALONG 28N24W 26N23W 24N22W. THE SECOND OCCLUDED FRONT BECOMES COLD FRONT ALONG 27N26W 25N26W 24N27W. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THESE TWO FRONTS COVER AN AREA FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 37W...WITH SEAS 14 TO 17 FEET IN THIS AREA...EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. ALSO...EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. FURTHERMORE...EXPECT THE EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA