000 AXNT20 KNHC 311116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N35W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 17W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 26N80W 22N85W 16N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. 15-20 SE WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 10-15 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70'S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ARE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 70W DUE TO AN OLD DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS STILL PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W. A 996 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N30W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS N OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG 30N34W 33N30W 31N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES S TO 24N27W 21N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 28W-30W...AND E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 24W-26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. RESIDUAL WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E...NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 29N-35N BETWEEN 13W-22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N30W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N55W TO S FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E AND NE NEAR 27N21N IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA