000
AXNT20 KNHC 310539
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N35W EQ50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 21W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N 
BETWEEN 28W-33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
EQ-3N BETWEEN 34W-40W.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1008 MB GALE LOW IS ALONG THE NE COAST OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 31N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ACROSS CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N82W 20N88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AND THE SE 
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE ALSO OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. 10-15 SE WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA. 10-15 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF W 
OF THE COLD FRONT EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W 94W WHERE 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70'S 
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS IN THE 40'S. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. 
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE BELIZE IN 
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 
A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE 
FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 
10N76W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS E OF 70W DUE TO AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N76W. VERY 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS STILL PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM 
FORMING IN THE AREA. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N54W. A 
994 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W. AN 
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N30W 30N27W. A 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES S TO 27N28W 23N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 30W-32W ...AND FROM 24N-27N 
BETWEEN 27W-29W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FRONTS. RESIDUAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM A 
DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E...NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS 
FROM 29N-35N BETWEEN 17W-23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 40W. A 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N30W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT... THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD 
FRONT THE BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO W CUBA IN 24 
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR 
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW AND FRONTAL 
SYSTEMS OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA