000 AXNT20 KNHC 301751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. SCATTER MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS COVERING AND GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ITCZ...FROM 3S TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W. THIS BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N83W 26N86W 23N90W 19N92W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING FURTHER 80 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 27N TO 30N. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER LOUISIANA IS SUPPORTING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF...THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 94W. WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IN 24 HOURS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...LEAVING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. AT SURFACE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL BASIN. WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN...NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 79W...ARE SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT...DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BASIN...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N56W. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL REGION NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 45W. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CREATE GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 75W...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMING LOW HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. EAST ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 992 MB OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BASIN...SPINNING NEAR 31N31W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 28N27W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM HAS LOST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SURFACE LOW. NEVERTHELESS...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE SURGES OF CLOUD BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN SEVERAL LAYERS OF FRONTS AROUND THE CENTER. THE FIRST ONE ANALYZED EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND BECOMES A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG 31N22W 28N22W 25N23W. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS DETACHED FROM THE LOW CENTER BUT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN COLD CHARACTERISTICS. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N26W 29N25W 26N28W. A THIRD COLD FRONT EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N28W 29N29W 28N30W. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THESE THREE FRONT COVER AN AREA FROM 24N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 18W AND 29W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA