000
AXNT20 KNHC 300542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 24W-32W... 
AND FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 29W-32W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N95W 20N96W. A 
WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. RAIN 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 
27N-31N BETWEEN 86W-90W. 20 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 10-15 SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
E GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER THE NW 
GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT. A GALE IS FORECAST OVER THE SW GULF IN 
12 HOURS S OF 22N W OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER 
THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W 
DUE TO AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING IN THE AREA. EXPECT... 
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W 
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N65W. A 
996 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N31W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N28W TO 27N30W 25N35W 27N40W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 31N23W 28N22W 24N26W 22N33W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
AND W OF 50W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N31W. UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W. ZONAL FLOW 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT... A COLD FRONT THE 
BE ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION 
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.       


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA