000 AXNT20 KNHC 291752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 4N8W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ51W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W AND 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE NORTHWEST GULF...EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 29N94W 27N96W 25N96W 23N97W. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N...AND SHOWERS EXTENDING EAST TO THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SECOND WAVE IS OVER EASTERN TEXAS...FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE GULF. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF...SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTH OF 22N. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IN 24 HOURS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. AT SURFACE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS INCREASING THE WINDS UP TO 25 KT WITHIN 100NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. FURTHERMORE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST IS CREATING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...WITH SEAS 12 TO 16 FEET IN THIS AREA. COMPUTER MODELS PROJECT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC BASIN...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N63W. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGION NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 48W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W...AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 24N45W 20N50W 20N57W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHILE THE SHEAR LINE MAY LINGER UP TO 48 HOURS. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CREATE GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W...WITH SEAS 12 TO 16 FT IN THIS REGION. A COMPLEX 997 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...SPINNING NEAR 32N32W. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY LOOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE SURGES OF CLOUD BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN SEVERAL LAYERS OF FRONTS AROUND THE CENTER. THE FIRST ONE ANALYZED EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND BECOMES COLD FRONT ALONG 30N27W 28N30W 29N34W. THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N24W 25N26W 21N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM WITHIN THESE TWO FRONTS...AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA