000 AXNT20 KNHC 291123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 20W-24W...FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 22W-27W...AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 42W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO SEEP INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS TEXAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WARM FRONT LINES THE NRN GULF FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER ALONG THE COASTLINE TO S OF MOBILE ALABAMA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS COASTLINE...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALOFT...MOIST SWLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN TEXAS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD SUPPORTING THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF S OF 24N BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 76W. THE END OF SHEAR LINE EXTENDING N OF HISPANIOLA ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N OF JAMAICA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 74W-78W...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND SHEAR LINE ENTERS THE SE CARIBBEAN LINING THE VENEZUELA COAST FROM NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ALONG 11N61W TO 12N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-77W NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N73W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 76W. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W CONTINUING ALONG 25N49W 22N62W WHERE IT LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO N OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N43W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A NEARLY STATIONARY 999 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 29N30W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE SURGES OF CLOUD BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN SEVERAL LAYERS OF FRONTS AROUND THE CENTER. THE FIRST IS TIGHTLY KNIT AROUND THE LOW CENTER WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER ALONG 29N29W CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 27N29W 27N33W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE LOW TO NEAR 30N34W. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS MORE REMOVED FROM THE LOW CENTER AND HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. A DYING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE N SEMI-CIRCLE ALONG 31N31W TO 30N27W AND CONTINUES AS A DYING COLD FRONT ALONG 26N26W 22N30W 22N38W. THE OUTERMOST...AND ORIGINAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 31N24W 24N23W 17N34W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE ALONG 10N53W AND WWD INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE OUTERMOST FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 23N BETWEEN 20W-26W...AS WELL AS N OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 HRS E OF THE LOW CENTER N OF 27N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW EXTENSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N43W WHERE IT CONTINUES EWD ALONG 32N TO JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON