000 AXNT20 KNHC 290546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 21W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE RIDGE PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOW SHIFTED E INTO THE SW N ATLC ALLOWING SLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ALOFT...MOIST SWLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW GULF ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD SUPPORTING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A SHEAR LINE ENTERS THE SE CARIBBEAN LINING THE VENEZUELA COAST FROM NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ALONG 11N61W TO 11N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 75W-77W NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N68W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W CONTINUING ALONG 26N50W 23N56W WHERE IT LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO N OF HAITI NEAR 28N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N43W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1000 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N30W. TWO SETS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACCOMPANY THE LOW. THE FIRST IS TIGHTLY KNIT AROUND THE LOW CENTER WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER ALONG 29N29W 27N27W CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 23N30W 23N35W TO WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 31N45W. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS MORE REMOVED FROM THE LOW CENTER. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE NE QUADRANT ALONG 32N35W 31N27W 27N24W AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 21N26W 17N32W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE ALONG 13N41W 11N52W TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE OUTERMOST FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 24N BETWEEN 16W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW EXTENSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N43W WHERE IT CONTINUES EWD ALONG 32N TO JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON