000 AXNT20 KNHC 281748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND 180 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN LIBERIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1.5N TO 5.5N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS COVERING THE GULF IS NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD AS SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO SLOWLY ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEEN TRANSPORTED FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST GULF. THEREFORE...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SEEN IN THIS REGION MOSTLY WEST OF 90W. AT SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. COMPUTER MODELS PROJECT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN BASIN FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MID MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY REMNANT CLOUDINESS IS LEFT FROM A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BASIN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION OFF THE COASTS NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...WITH SEAS 12 TO 16 FT IN THIS AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE 1029 HIGH IS ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE WESTERN REGION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WEST OF 65W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 32N50W 28N52W 24N56W 22N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 36N50W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COMPLEX 999 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN BASIN NEAR 27N32W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE DEPICTED FROM THE CENTER LOW. BOTH BOUNDARIES START FROM THE LOW AS OCCLUDED FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE ANALYZED EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 28N26W 24N25W 20N28W 17N31W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 27N30W 24N32W 22N34W...BECOMING A TROUGH LINE EXTENDING TO 26N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM WITHIN THESE FRONTS. NEVERTHELESS...SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE FIRST ONE IS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA