000 AXNT20 KNHC 281130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W ALONG 5N20W 5N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 8W-13W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 46W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER NRN ALABAMA. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE WRN GULF WHERE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LINE THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE REACHING 20 KT ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND W GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AROUND THE NRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO FILTER ACROSS THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA BEGINS TO PUSH EWD. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT E AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N74W TO 20N80W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A SHEAR LINE ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN LINING THE VENEZUELA COAST FROM NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ALONG 12N66W TO 13N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED S OF HAITI FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 77W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW N ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 77W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N61W TO TURKS AND CAICOS WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N47W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A 999 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS NEAR 28N35W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 29N28W 23N29W 18N34W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 12N49W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 21N-28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER N OF 26N E OF 40W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON