000
AXNT20 KNHC 280512
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU JAN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0430 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 4N20W 
4N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S48W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 
19W-30W...FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 29W-33W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 
44W-49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT 
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER NRN ALABAMA. THE RIDGE IS 
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT 
FOR THE WRN GULF WHERE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LINE THE MEXICO AND 
TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. 
ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE 
REACHING 20 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW 
PREVAILS AROUND THE NRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 80W 
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE 
TO SHIFT E AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD 
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
EARLY FRI. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR 
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF 
CENTRAL CUBA. A SHEAR LINE BISECTS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. 
THE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO THE NW 
ALONG 14N70W 17N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
VENEZUELA COASTLINE...AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 71W-84W. 
ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW N 
ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE 
BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
ALONG 80W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING 
SW ALONG 27N62W 23N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO CENTRAL 
CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA 
SCOTIA TO NEAR 27N55W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD 
FRONT AND A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. THE 
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N54W. THE SYSTEM TO 
THE E CONSISTS OF A 1000 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 29N37W. AN 
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE 
AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N30W 25N28W 21N31W 15N40W 
BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR TRINIDAD AND 
TOBAGO WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N 
OF 24N BETWEEN 21N-28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER N OF 
26N E OF 42W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
NEAR 30N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON