000
AXNT20 KNHC 271743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N20W 
3N35W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S46W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM EQ-6N 
BETWEEN 4W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 26W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-3S BETWEEN 35W-41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 
34N87W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF N OF 23N AND W 
OF 96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS 
ALONG 85W PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 
HOURS DUE TO RETURN FLOW. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL 
CUBA ALONG 22N76W 21N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF CENTRAL GUATEMALA. A BAND OF LOW 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH ALSO 
EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 
HONDURAS ALONG 12N60W 16N75W 15N85W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE 
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W-84W. CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRESENTLY HAS FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS 
ALONG 84W IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO THE S BAHAMAS 
ALONG 25N67W 22N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 
CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE FRONTS. A 1024 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 27N55W. FURTHER EAST A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E 
ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 29N28W 23N30W 
16N40W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS TO 12N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 
THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 23W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. A 1005 MB LOW 
IS W OF THE ABOVE FRONT NEAR 29N36W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 28N32W 
25N33W 21N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THIS FRONT. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 
25W-43W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W 
OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N34W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO 17N34W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC E OF 50W FROM EQ-17N. EXPECT ALL FRONTAL 
SYSTEMS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA