000 AXNT20 KNHC 271129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 4N20W 4N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 3W-11W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER NRN ALABAMA. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE WRN GULF WHERE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LINE THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE REACHING 20 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 21N82W BECOMING STATIONARY TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF MARTINIQUE NEAR 14N61W CONTINUING NW TO S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM 12N-15N E OF 67W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-79W. THIS AREA HAS HAD CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...GUADELOUPE HAS REPORTED ALMOST .75 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC ALONG 70W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 54W IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N55W AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 54W. THE SYSTEM TO THE E CONSISTS OF PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. A 1005 MB CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 28N40W. A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N32W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO NEAR 27N32W...THEN SW TO NEAR 22N40W. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA E OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 32N30W 23N33W 17N40W 15N50W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N E OF 45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 23W-30W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON