000 AXNT20 KNHC 270526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 8N12W ALONG 5N22W 2N35W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER E OKLAHOMA. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING EXTREMELY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE WRN GULF WHERE SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 19N83W BECOMING STATIONARY TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO COVERING NRN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE MARTINIQUE PASSAGE NEAR 14N61W CONTINUING NW TO S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 17N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM 13N-16N E OF 66W...AND FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-77W. THIS AREA HAS HAD CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...GUADELOUPE HAS REPORTED ALMOST .75 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC ALONG 75W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 55W IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N54W AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 55W. THE SYSTEM TO THE E CONSISTS OF A 1005 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 33N39W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N33W CONTINUING ALONG 27N34W 22N40W. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA E OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 32N29W 25N32W 19N41W 15N50W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE SW OF THE LOW CENTER N OF 28N E OF 45W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 27W-32W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W. THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON