000
AXNT20 KNHC 262254
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2215 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N28W TO 2N38W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST
OF 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LAST FEW 
DAYS WAS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA AROUND A RIDGE...THROUGH 
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 20N82W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N82W TO 19N84W TO HONDURAS
NEAR 16N85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N79W 20N82W 18N85W
TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 14N86W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THIS CLOUDINESS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA 
FROM 14N60W TO 17N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 14N60W TO 17N70W TO 
18N75W TO 20N80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS LINE OF CLOUDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH...MOST PROBABLY FROM BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...IS ALONG
16N71W 13N73W TO 8N75W IN COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOSTLY STILL IS ON TOP OF THE 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...BEYOND
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N64W TO 27N70W BEYOND 23N80W JUST OFF THE CUBA COAST. SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 24N60W TO 20N67W. THIS RIDGE IS 
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY 
WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS ONE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W 
TO 28N30W TO 20N37W TO 17N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 
17N45W TO 14N55W AND 14N60W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT GOES FROM 
THE END OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS NEAR 30N36W TO 28N38W TO 
26N42W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 
25N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
LINE 25N33W 20N39W 15N50W 14N55W BEYOND 14N60W. COLD-AIR 
STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N33W 24N40W 24N50W 
29N55W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 34W
AND 36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT