000 AXNT20 KNHC 260558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0430 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 8N11W ALONG 5N22W 3N34W 1N42W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 27W-32W...AND BETWEEN 36W-38W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE SW N ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 26N92W PROVIDING EXTREMELY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ACROSS CUBA E OF HAVANA NEAR 23N80W CONTINUING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT LINES THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE MARTINIQUE PASSAGE NEAR 15N61W CONTINUING W TO S OF HAITI NEAR 18N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE FRONT AND 180 NM N OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENCE AIR AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 67W IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND A SECOND FRONT ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N57W AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 67W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N32W CONTINUING SW ALONG 21N40W TO E OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS N OF 24N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 39W. THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 78W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF 29N W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N62W. BESIDES THE SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 990 MB LOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W CONTINUING ALONG 22N45W 17N55W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 43W SUPPORTS THE FRONT...AND MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE ITCZ. FARTHER E...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OFF THE N COAST OF SPAIN. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON