000 AXNT20 KNHC 252353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 3N30W 1N40W INTO NE BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 6N16N AND WITHIN 80 NM S OF AXIS FROM 26W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 37W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION AS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH...ANALYZED 1017 MB NEAR 28N91W AT 2100 UTC...IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD SE LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE OVER THE SE CONUS LATE WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF LATE THU. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE ON FRI...AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING. CURRENTLY...NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF PER SURFACE DATA AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE LIGHTER...10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. ALOFT...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO N HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. AT THAT TIME...RADAR FROM CUBA SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF HAVANA...MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WNW AFFECTING PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE IS NOTED OVER THE ISLANDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED TRADE WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AS HIGH PRES SETTLES N OF AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 70W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N76W ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N AND EAST OF THE FRONT TO 72W WHERE AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED S TO SW WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ABOUT 18 HOURS WHILE W TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC REACHING A POSITION FROM FROM NEAR 31N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC TUE THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N32W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ALONG 20N42W 15N60W STRETCHING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. A NEAR 180 NM WIDE BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. IN BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONTS...THERE IS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N38W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS SEEN S OF 15N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GR