000
AXNT20 KNHC 251720
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 1N40W 1S50W.   
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 
10W-15W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 27W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA 
AND CONTINUES TO HONDURAS ALONG 28N80W 22N84W 19N86W 16N86W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT FROM S 
FLORIDA TO W CUBA AT 22N84W. AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. 10-15 NW 
SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 
THE FRONT WHILE 20 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E 
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF 
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE E OF THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITHIN 12 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO N HONDURAS 
ALONG 22N84W 19N86W 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK STATIONARY 
FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N60W 17N68W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1007 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N76W. CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 17-21 KT. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W IS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT...BOTH FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO BECOME STATIONARY 
AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N77W 28N80W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 72W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS 
ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N60W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 
32N34W 22N40W 17N50W 15N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90NM N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 35N20W 
TO 22N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A 
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM EQ-20N. EXPECT...BOTH FRONTS TO 
MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA