000 AXNT20 KNHC 251133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 4N20W 2N35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER BRAZIL S OF 2N BETWEEN 46W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR JACKSONVILLE AT 31N82W TO TAMPA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N86W 22N88W 19N92W 20N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A THIN LINE OF STRONGER STORMS 30 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE NNE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES COASTLINE. PORTIONS OF N FLORIDA AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA ARE UNDER TORNADO WATCH AT THIS TIME A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. FLOOD WARNINGS EXTEND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF STATES. 20 TO 25 KT NW TO N SURFACE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE W GULF ALONG 92W SUPPORTS THE FRONT...PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 73W. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 17N60W TO 18N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT AXIS E OF 66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FARTHER W N OF 16N E OF 71W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE E AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...WITH SHOWERS ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHES SE INTO THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 78W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF 29N W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N62W. BESIDES THE SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 990 MB LOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W CONTINUING ALONG 22N45W 17N55W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 43W SUPPORTS THE FRONT...AND MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE ITCZ. FARTHER E...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OFF THE N COAST OF SPAIN. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON