000 AXNT20 KNHC 250549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0430 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 4N20W 1N35W EQ45W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 27W-52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BRAZIL S OF THE AXIS FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE AT 31N84W TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N87W 23N89W 21N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF STRONGER STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA AND UP THE SE COAST STATES. PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AS WELL AS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA ARE UNDER TORNADO WATCH AT THIS TIME. 20 TO 25 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT COMING FROM THE S TO SW AHEAD...SHIFTING W TO NW BEHIND. A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE W GULF ALONG 94W SUPPORTS THE FRONT...PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 75W. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...TO N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 18N63W 19N67W 20N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHES SE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 37N64W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 992 MB LOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W CONTINUING ALONG 24N46W 18N55W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W BECOMING A DYING COLD FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 22N74W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 46W SUPPORTS THE FRONT...AND MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE ITCZ. FARTHER E...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OFF THE N COAST OF SPAIN. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 27W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E ACROSS W AFRICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG ERN PORTIONS OF THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON