000
AXNT20 KNHC 242322
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 2N45W EQ50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 27W-30W... 
AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N87W 20N93W 17N95W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. 20-25 NW SURFACE WINDS 
ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE AN EQUALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS 
ALONG 77W PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WEST CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 
HOUR WITH SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 
PUERTO RICO ALONG 17N60W 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM N OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA 
NEAR 9N74W. CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY 
FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 17-21 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 77W IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MOREOVER...EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO 
THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS ALONG 32N42W 25N45W 17N55W 17N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E AND N OF THE FRONT. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN 300 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. FURTHER E...A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N19W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 
THE HIGH CENTER TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 20W-45W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLANTIC FROM EQ-20N. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. 
ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N32W 
AND EXTEND SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA