000 AXNT20 KNHC 241131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W INTO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 29N83W AND CONTINUES NORTHWEST ACROSS PENSACOLA. WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM NORTH OF THIS FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 29N91W 26N94W 22N97W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND IS FOUND WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF IT. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE EASTERN LOUISIANA COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TEXAS. A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS 100NM EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF IS PRODUCING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE 993 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N53W 24N56W 21N61W. FROM THIS POINT IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. DEW POINTS OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 78W. SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 350 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...COVERING AN AREA FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. GALE FORCE WINDS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 10 TO 18 FEET. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. ALSO...TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CREATE GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 76W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 40W...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA