000
AXNT20 KNHC 231731
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N43W 1N48W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 
26W-31W...FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 35W-38W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 
35W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 90 NM INLAND OVER S TEXAS 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 96W-98W. 
FURTHER SE...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 
ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER S FLORIDA ALONG 25N80W 25N83W. 
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LOUISIANA ALONG 27N87W 29N90W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A RATHER TIGHT 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO S WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND CLOUDINESS IS OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WHILE STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT...THE TEXAS COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOUR 
WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 77W-81W...AND OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS 
NEAR 19N81W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. 
EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER PANAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO STRENGTHEN.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 27N63W 25N70W 
TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-60W. FURTHER E...THE TAIL 
END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 29N10W 
28N13W 28N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
55W-70W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 
EQ-32N. EXPECT...THE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N45W IN 24 
HOURS WITH CONVECTION N OF 23N.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

FORMOSA