000
AXNT20 KNHC 231119
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS OBSERVED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 
6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W INTO THE NORTHEAST COAST 
OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
FROM 3W TO 5W BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROVIDING 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR...PREVENTING ANY MAJOR CONVECTION FROM 
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST 
PORTION OF THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST 
INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N82W 25N85W 26N90W. FROM THIS POINT IT 
CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 
GALVESTON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE STATIONARY AND WARM FRONT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
GULF. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WEST OF 90W...HAVE 
INCREASED UP TO 25 KT. IN 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE WESTERN GULF...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION 
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 
5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 994 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N60W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N62W...AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND IN THE 
SAME DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. 
SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...COVERING AN AREA 
FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
OBSERVED MAINLY EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N...AND EXPECTED TO 
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. A SECONDARY 
FRONT IS ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N67W. THESE 
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...A SURFACE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER 
35N22W...PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN REGION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC CROSSING THE CANARY 
ISLANDS...BRINGING WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF 
THESE ISLANDS. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA