000
AXNT20 KNHC 230537
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS OBSERVED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF SIERRA LEONE 
NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 45W AND CONTINUING INTO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
BELEM AT 1S48W. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 29W 
TO 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROVIDING STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE OF AIR...PREVENTING ANY MAJOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS 
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF 
ALONG 26N82W 25N85W 26N90W. FROM THIS POINT IT CONTINUES AS A 
WARM FRONT TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR GALVESTON. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY AND WARM 
FRONT. IN 24 HOURS THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS 
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THIS REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 
ONLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST 
BASIN NEAR PUERTO RICO AND US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE AND 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT 
ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 988 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 36N65W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N70W...AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND IN THE 
SAME DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. 
SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...COVERING AN AREA 
FROM 25N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
OBSERVED NORTH OF 27N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND EXPECTED 
TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS FRONTAL 
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NORTHEAST IN TH NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT ACROSS A MAJORITY 
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR 
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC 
120 NM NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THESE ISLANDS AS THE 
FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA