000 AXNT20 KNHC 221718 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE S IVORY COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 5N5W ALONG 7N17W 1N29W 1N42W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ51W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO JUST N OF TAMPA CONTINUING TO NEAR 27N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N90W 27N93W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO SARASOTA CONTINUING SW TO 25N87W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS INDICATED BY RADAR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEING FARTHER E...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT WITH THE W ATLC PORTION CONTINUING TO PUSH SE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE FAR SRN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN TEXAS...THE MEXICO COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR NE GULF COASTAL WATERS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO COSTA RICA. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N79W TO THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 11N. FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SW N ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W-80W...WITH A THIN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS AREA ACTIVITY LIES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 992 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ABOUT 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT FROM 28N79W TO S OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 37N71W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE FEATURE WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN 73W. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS TO THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 9 HRS N OF 27N EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A SECOND COLD FRONT SKIMS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N48W TO 30N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT TO THE S AND E ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 25N48W AND 27N28W KEEPING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB LOW OFF THE PORTUGAL COAST ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N20W ALONG 29N26W 28N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N15W ALONG 30N23W 27N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON