000 AXNT20 KNHC 212355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N08W 5N13W 3N22W 3N32W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W AND INTO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 29N90W TO 24N97W. THIS FRONT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE WHERE A VERY DIFFLUENT PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH COVERING A PORTION OF THE FAR NE GULF...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE W ATLC WATERS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W ALONG 27N86W TO 25N89W. CONVERGENT S-SE WINDS AND SW WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N. THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY INTENSE SQUALL LINE OF TSTMS JUST NORTH OF DAYTONA BEACH WESTWARD TO GAINESVILLE FLORIDA. ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS...WEST OF THE COLD FRONT... THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS NW FLOW DOMINATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED REPRIEVE OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED MAINLY IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS FROM 21N64W ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 17N63W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND THEY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS SAINT VINCENT NEAR 13N61W THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING GALE FORCE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC WATERS N OF 28N W OF 73W AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND MID-ATLC STATES THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALL FOUND ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N68W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. FARTHER EAST... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N29W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N40W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N50W TO 22N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N64W SOUTH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 17N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 58W-65W. THIS ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W TO 26N50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N31W WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW. THIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 18W-28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ HUFFMAN