000 AXNT20 KNHC 211726 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SRN TIP OF LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W ALONG 2N21W 4N30W 2N37W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NE GULF WHERE TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S GEORGIA. A SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE STRONGEST LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM S OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA TO S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA CONTINUING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF PANAMA CITY NEAR 30N86W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA E OF 86W N OF 29N. THIS AREA OF STRONG ACTIVITY GETS IS SUPPORT FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE N FLORIDA STATE BORDER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO AN OCCLUDED 996 MB LOW IN N ARKANSAS. S TO SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT N. SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AROUND THE E SIDE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE SURFACE SYSTEM WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ACROSS THE WRN GULF...A COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OFF THE TEXAS COAST EXTENDING FROM THE SAME OCCLUDED LOW IN N ARKANSAS ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA CONTINUING SW TO S OF CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS. DENSE FOG IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY LINING THE COASTLINE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 26N96W OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BESIDES THE AREA OF ACTIVITY IN THE NE GULF...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC CONTINUING TO N DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 20N61W 19N65W 16N66W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF 16N...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 19N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY REACH GALE FORCE UP TO 35 KT FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SW N ATLC N OF 29N W OF 78W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A WARM FRONT LINING THE N FLORIDA STATE BORDER TO 29N77W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S OF THE FRONT FROM A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N58W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 25N47W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N59W TO N DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM BEHIND THE FRONT AND 30 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 53W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 21N BETWEEN 60W-65W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK AND BROAD SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 30N40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON