000
AXNT20 KNHC 191153
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER NEAR 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 
3S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N AT THE 
PRIME MERIDIAN...2N10W 6N19W 4N30W 4N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO APPEARS TO 
HAVE BEEN STRETCHED IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...AND IT IS 
MUCH MORE SUBTLE. THE TROUGH GOES FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO 
24N91W IN THE GULF WATERS, UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN REACHES MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N. 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA-TO-24N91W TROUGH. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE 
SURROUNDS THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 28N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND REACHES 
19N75W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 19N75W TO 15N79W TO PANAMA NEAR 
9N79W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS TO THE 
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 
71W/72W FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 14N. SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST BETWEEN 
70W AND 72W. A THIRD TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE 
AREA...ALONG 18N59W 16N63W 12N64W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...INCLUDING SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 8 FT TO 14 FT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 
THE WEST OF 47W. TWO COLD FRONTS ARE IN THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE FIRST FRONT IS THE ORIGINAL ONE... 
PASSING THROUGH 32N58W TO 26N65W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N75W.
THE SECOND FRONT PROVIDES A RE-INFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...
WITHIN 100 NM TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST FRONT TO
THE NORTH OF 27N...AND THEN SPREADING WESTWARD IN ORDER TO BE
350 NM TO THE WEST OF FIRST FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 26N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 25N68W 27N78W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 
21N TO 26N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES 
THROUGH 32N15W TO 22N30W. BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. 
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS 
FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N28W TO 
26N42W TO 20N55W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT