000 AXNT20 KNHC 182353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N03W 4N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W THEN TO 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND ALSO FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 25W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOST OF EASTERN MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N89W. GENERALLY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ENVELOPS THE GULF WITH S-SE WINDS REACHING 15 KT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. AS THAT SELY SURFACE FLOW INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 90W-96W. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 20N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THEREFORE ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM A 986 MB LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NE U.S. COAST AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W CONTINUING SW ALONG 28N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF 32N...HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 61W-68W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 41N65W TO 32N77W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N42W THAT IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-58W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W SW ALONG 20N30W TO 15N45W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 34W-45W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N30W TO BEYOND 32N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ HUFFMAN