000 AXNT20 KNHC 181720 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SE LIBERIA NEAR 4N6W ALONG 5N17W 2N28W EQ39W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 15W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 22W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE MISSISSIPPI COASTLINE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE REACHING 15 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA DRAWING A SWATH OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO N/CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT E ALLOWING SLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE W ATLC TO ERN CUBA BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 22N81W ALONG 19N85W TO THE N CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM N OF GRENADA NEAR 13N61W TO THE NW ALONG 15N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. SMALL WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER RIDGE ARE SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT BOTH THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO DISSIPATE BY LATER TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM A 987 MB LOW OFF THE NE UNITES STATES COAST ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W CONTINUING SW ALONG 27N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 64W-68W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 41N67W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 34N61W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 1500 NM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N45W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. FARTHER E...A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SLIGHTLY W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N18W ALONG 24N25W TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N36W WHERE IT LOOSES ITS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 15N50W TO THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH ELSEWHERE. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON