000
AXNT20 KNHC 180519
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON JAN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W...
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVER ABACO AND JUST TO THE NORTH
OF ANDROS ISLAND...INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W...
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH...INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N84W...TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS 
NEAR 16N87W. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT JUST CROSSED THE GULF OF 
MEXICO DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS. THE WHOLE AREA THAT IS AROUND 
THE FRONT IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.
ALL THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONT IS TO 
THE NORTH OF 32N...ALONG THE U.S.A. MIDDLE ATLANTIC EAST COAST.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 
14N100W...ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
100W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTWARD TO 29N86W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 24N92W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 14N60W TO PUERTO RICO TO 21N70W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH...
NORTHEAST...AND EAST OF 12N60W 15N66W 18N68W 23N70W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN
CLOUDINESS THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 18N TO 19N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 18N38W SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 24N30W TO 19N40W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N40W TO 14N50W TO
14N60W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
23N34W 27N29W BEYOND 32N26W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT