000 AXNT20 KNHC 171142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA AT 4N9W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 2N30W 3N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR OR ALONG THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF GUINEA FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 4W AND 8E. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SET OF TWO COLD FRONTS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG 30N83W 28N82W 26N82W CONTINUING SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SCATTER SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS PASSING OVER THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA AND WILL IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED CROSSING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 30N87W AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG 28N87W 26N88W 24N89W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST GULF AND RE-ENFORCING THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THUS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS LOOSEN PRODUCING 10 TO 15 KT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 90W...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED. IN 24 HOURS THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...WHILE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF BRINGING CALM WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEA BASIN AS THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH LINGERS NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTER SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 22N85W 20N86W 18N86W 16N85W. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 80W. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 74W. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SEEN EAST OF 70W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF 50W. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W. A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 36N22W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N23W AND CONTINUES ALONG 23N30W 20N37W 18N43W CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 17N60W. FROM THIS POINT...A TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHWEST PASSING 40 NM NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS....PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTER SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST WITH DEBILITATED CONVECTION IN IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA