000 AXNT20 KNHC 170535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA AT 4N9W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS GETTING READY TO HIT THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED CROSSING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG 29N85W 26N85W 24N84W ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH 21N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTH OF 26N. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS PASSING OVER THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA AND WILL IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN. THUS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS LOOSEN PRODUCING 10 TO 20 KT WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. SURFACE OBSERVATION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOW SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. IN 24 HOURS THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...WHILE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF BRINGING CALM WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEA BASIN AS THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH LINGERS NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FEWER SCATTER SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO...COMPARED TO 24 HOUR AGO WHEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS OVER THE MENTIONED ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BASIN. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 22N85W 20N86W 18N87W. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SEEN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 83W. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF 50W. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 77W OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THIS REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N23W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N24W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N30W 20N38W 17N50W CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 17N62W. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST WITH DEBILITATED CONVECTION IN IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA