000
AXNT20 KNHC 162345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N7W TO 
3N30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 6W-10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 25W-35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI 
NEAR 30N89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N86W 20N88W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E 
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 31N80W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
FLORIDA FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 83W-86W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS 
RAIN OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST 
STATES N OF 28N E OF 94W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE NE 
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N AND E OF 
THE COLD FRONT. 15-20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW 
IS W OF 90W. THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
GULF E OF 90W. A 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM N 
MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO BEYOND LOUISIANA. A BAND OF BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 23N E OF 90W. 
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO BELIZE 
IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
NE GULF WILL DIMINISH IN 06 HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO PUERTO RICO...TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
PRODUCING MORE RAIN N OF 18N AND E OF 71W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL E OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG TRADEWINDS 
ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
NORTH COLOMBIA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 74W-77W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE RAIN OVER THE 
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE COLD 
FRONT. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N80W TO 31N75W. A 1025 
MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N64W. A 1009 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 
THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N27W 20N40W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 17N50W 
18N60W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTS. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 55W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 20W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST 
AFRICA NEAR 21N7W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N57W. EXPECT...THE TWO SURFACE FRONTS TO MOVE 
SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA