000 AXNT20 KNHC 161720 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 5N3W NEAR THE SRN IVORY COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 3N23W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 26W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 28N87W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N88W 19N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WWD FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N TO S OF HOUSTON TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W AFFECTING SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF FAR SE LOUISIANA AND ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED TO AN AREA BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM FRONT FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W AS INDICATED BY RECENT LIGHTNING DATA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. E TO SE GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT ARE NOTED IN THE NE GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-90W. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER N TEXAS/W OKLAHOMA WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN 98W. A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE SURFACE SYSTEM...AND CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BRINGING WITH IT CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N NEAR A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO JUST S OF HISPANIOLA. POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 35 KT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 74W-77W. STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGS MOISTURE EWD. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITHIN 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC MOVES E WEAKENING THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SW N ATLC N OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO 29N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 28N W OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS N OF 29N W OF 77W AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVES NE. THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N51W. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 33N28W ALONG 25N35W 19N45W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 18N55W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 4N38W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON