000 AXNT20 KNHC 161131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA AT 4N8W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 3N30W 2N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR ILHA DE MARAJO AT EQ49W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W AND 31W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT 29N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W AND CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN NORTH OF 24N...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHERE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE COAST FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SURFACE LOW BEEN SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...FURTHER HELPING WITH LIFTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE WEST. TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE EAST. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORMS SHOW EASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. IN 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MORE RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEA BASIN AS THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE BAND OF CLOUDS RELATED TO THIS FRONT IS SEEN AS FAR WEST AS HAITI NEAR PORT AU PRINCE. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SCATTER SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA...FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF 50W. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER WITH MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS IS SEEN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N28W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N34W 21N40W 18N48W CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 17N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE CONVECTION IS HAPPENING NORTH OF 30N. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND NEAR MOROCCO. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN UNITED STATES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 77W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ GARCIA